Análisis y Comentarios
2021-12-09 | Puertos SRL

Que hacemos si limitan la demanda?

Que hacemos si limitan la demanda?

El martes comentamos las intenciones del gobierno de limitar las exportaciones, lo que traerá como consecuencia la limitación de la demanda, y por lo tanto un impacto negativo en los precios. Surge entonces, la necesidad de cubrirse, sobre todo en cereales. A continuación, proponemos algunos ejemplos:

En *Maíz de primera*, el precio MATBA Abril cerró a u$s 197,50, y el PUT de Precio de Ejercicio u$s 188, se negoció con una prima de u$s 5,20. Recordemos que con el PUT, ponemos un precio piso, pero no se limitan ganancias ante eventuales subas. Pero si la prima nos resulta “cara” podemos vender un CALL, poniendo un precio techo. En ese caso, Poner un piso de u$s 188 y un techo de u$s 216, tendría un costo aproximado de u$s 1,50. En concreto, por solo el 0,7%, cerramos un valor muy interesante.

Si aplicamos los mismos parámetros para analizar el *Maíz de segunda*, nos encontramos con la cotización julio en u$s 181,50. Las estrategias con opciones nos muestran una alternativa de piso u$s 172 y techo u$s 200, por solo u$s 1.

Si miramos al *Trigo*, volvemos resaltar la escasísima diferencia de precio que muestran las posiciones marzo y julio (u$s 251 y u$s 252,50 respectivamente). Claramente el mercado observa un futuro de trigo planchado, luego de marzo. Con ese panorama, para los más osados surge el CALL de Trigo julio, de precio de ejercicio u$s 256, con una prima de u$s 13,50.

La *soja* no luce amenazada por las intervenciones a los registros de exportación, pero igualmente aplicaremos los mismos razonamientos. Mayo cerró u$s 318. La estrategia de piso y techo más interesante parecería ser la de u$s 300 y u$s 340, con un costo de u$s 1.  

Las estrategias de piso y techo, dan seguridad en cuanto a los precios a los que se podrá vender la cosecha, y no implican la obligación de entrega física. Para pensarlo bien!!  

Saludos a todos

Juan Pablo Galleano

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